The Qatar 2022 World Cup will kick off on November 20 with the match between host Qatar and Ecuador, South America's fourth-placed team. Fewer than 50 days remain, and the teams have very few opportunities left to fine-tune their line-ups, recover injured players, and pray to all the gods that no mishaps happen at their respective clubs.
Friendly Fears
And when it comes to friendly matches, there are known fears that national teams face in these games of little consequence: first, the danger of putting players at risk (the so-called "FIFA Virus") in exchange for little returns. Another fear is the poor impression that a national team could make if results do not favor it, especially if they’re playing against a low-ranking opponent. Bad results could affect the morale of the squad and the coaching staff and even create a negative atmosphere within the press and among the fans at home. And finally, it is worth mentioning that if the opponent is not competitive, what is the point of the match? Can players truly be tested if the "test" itself is not demanding?
In 2018 UEFA took an enormous step towards remedying the problems generated by these friendly matches. With the creation of the Nations League, European teams no longer play "for marbles," but rather compete within one of four tiers with varying objectives in mind: promote, avoid relegation, or just stay put. UEFA placed all countries in groups of somewhat similar level (are there truly 16 European teams at the top level?), which encourages them to put their best players in every match. Thus, one could say that the European candidates (France, Germany, Belgium, Spain, and one or two others) are preparing far better than their South American rivals. Let's look at the numbers. The FIFA ranking appears in parentheses.
European Powerhouses
France (4) played its last qualifying match on November 16, 2021. Since that date, they faced Ivory Coast (52), South Africa (68), and had home and away matches with Denmark (10), Austria (33), and Croatia (15) in their Nations League group. The average Fifa ranking of France's opponents was 29.
Belgium (2) participated in 8 matches since the last World Cup qualifier. Their opponents were Ireland (47), Burkina Faso (55), and twice with their Nations League group rivals Netherlands (8), Poland (26), and Wales (19). The average Fifa ranking of Belgium's opponents was 26.
Four-time world champions Germany (11) completed their participation in the European qualifiers by defeating Armenia on 14 November 2021. Of all the contenders for the Jules Rimet Trophy, Germany was handed the toughest opponents: Israel (76), the Netherlands (8), and twice Italy (7), England (5), and Hungary (37). The average Fifa ranking of Germany's opponents was 18.
Spain (6), the 2010 South Africa champions, faced Albania (66) and Iceland (63), in addition to Nations League home and away matches against Portugal (9), Czech Republic (32), and Switzerland (16). The average Fifa ranking of Spain's opponents was 29.
And finally, there's England (5). A team not often counted among the favorites to take the World Cup, but one that has made remarkable progress in recent years, as evidenced by their runner-up finish at the Euro 2020 and their consistent high Fifa ranking since 2018. Additionally, England competed in a tough group in the Nations League (just like Germany). Since the end of the European qualifiers, England faced Switzerland (16), Ivory Coast (52), and twice Hungary (37), Germany (11), and Italy (7). The average Fifa ranking of England's opponents was 22.
South American Giants
Let's go to South America to see how Brazil and Argentina have prepared for Qatar. The five-time world champions have been traveling the world, and among all the opponents at their disposal, they settled on South Korea (28), Japan (24), Ghana (60), and Tunisia (30). The average Fifa ranking of Brazil's opponents was 35.
Argentina, on the other hand, played against Italy (7), Estonia (110), Honduras (80), and Jamaica (62). Had it not been for the finalissima game against Italy, the level of Argentina's rival is rather poor, which is striking given that teams like Argentina can attract any opponent they want. There is little to nothing gained by Argentina's national team playing against opponents such as Estonia, Honduras, and Jamaica. The average Fifa ranking of Argentina's opponents was 64 (and 84 without Italy).
Surely many factors will affect the outcomes of the matches in Qatar 2022. But if one only analyzes the benefits of the friendly preparation matches, the European teams made the best use of these opportunities.